NASA Asteroid 2024 YR4 Hitting Earth in 2032

As of February 16, 2025, NASA is closely monitoring asteroid 2024 YR4, a near-Earth object approximately 130 to 300 feet (40 to 90 meters) wide. Discovered on December 27, 2024, by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile, this asteroid has a 2.3% chance of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032. This probability has increased from an initial estimate of 1.2%. 

Due to its size and impact probability, 2024 YR4 is currently rated at level 3 on the Torino Scale, indicating a close encounter with a 1% or greater chance of a collision capable of causing localized destruction. This classification has prompted the International Asteroid Warning Network to issue formal notifications to relevant agencies. 

The potential impact corridor spans from the eastern Pacific Ocean, across northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, central Africa, the Arabian Sea, and into South Asia. Countries within this corridor include India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Sudan, Nigeria, Venezuela, Colombia, and Ecuador. 

It's important to note that while a 2.3% chance may seem concerning, it also means there's a 97.7% probability that the asteroid will not impact Earth. NASA and other international space agencies are actively monitoring 2024 YR4. Observations from ground-based telescopes will continue through April 2025, after which the asteroid will become too faint to observe until around June 2028. These ongoing observations aim to refine the asteroid's orbit and impact probability. 

In the unlikely event that 2024 YR4 is on a collision course with Earth, potential mitigation strategies include deflection missions. NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission in 2022 successfully demonstrated the ability to alter an asteroid's trajectory by impacting it with a spacecraft. However, implementing such a mission would require significant preparation and international collaboration.