Olive Prices in the United States from 2020 to 2025

Olive prices in the United States, encompassing both table olives and olive oil, have experienced fluctuations from 2020 to 2025, driven by factors such as global supply constraints, weather conditions, import dynamics, and rising consumer demand for healthier oils. Note that prices for table olives and olive oil are often reported separately, and the data primarily focuses on import and export prices per metric ton or kilogram, as well as market trends.

Table Olives: Price Trends (2020–2025)

Import Prices for Table Olives (USD per kg):

Export Prices for Table Olives (USD per kg):

2023 Market Snapshot:

• The average import price for table olives in 2023 was $963 per ton ($0.963 per kg), reflecting an 11.9% decrease from 2022’s peak of $1,094 per ton. This decline was influenced by increased imports (14,000 tons in 2023, up 132% from 2022) primarily from Mexico, which saw a +3.9% annual price growth rate from 2013 to 2023.

Key Observations:

• Table olive prices have been relatively stable compared to olive oil, with modest increases driven by steady demand and consistent import volumes.

• The U.S. is a net importer of table olives, with significant imports from Mexico and other regions. In 2020, the U.S. exported 6,114 tons of olives, down from 8,749 tons in 2019, indicating a reliance on imports to meet domestic demand.

• No specific retail price data for table olives (e.g., per jar or can) is available, but import price trends suggest stable consumer prices with slight increases through 2025.

Olive Oil: Price Trends (2020–2025)

Olive oil prices have been more volatile than table olive prices due to global production challenges, particularly droughts in major producing countries like Spain, Italy, and Greece, coupled with rising U.S. demand. Below are the import and export price trends, supplemented by global and regional market data.

Import Prices for Olive Oil (USD per kg or USD per ton):

Export Prices for Olive Oil (USD per kg):

Retail and Market Trends:

• 2020: U.S. olive oil consumption was around 386,000 metric tons, with a 25% sales surge and 43% household penetration, despite high prices compared to other cooking oils. The average virgin olive oil import price was $4,017 per ton ($4.02 per kg), down 11.5% from 2019.

• 2021–2023: Prices rose sharply due to droughts in the EU, particularly Spain, reducing global production by nearly 30% in the 2022/23 and 2023/24 crop years. This drove import prices to record highs, with refined olive oil at $5,034 per ton in March 2023 and total import values reaching $1.6 billion in 2023.

• 2024: The U.S. olive oil market was valued at $15.11 billion, with Europe holding a 49.97% share of global supply. Prices remained elevated due to lingering supply constraints, though improved harvests in 2024/25 began to stabilize markets.

• 2025: The U.S. olive oil market is projected to grow to $2.81 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 11.31% from 2024. Prices are expected to stabilize or decline slightly due to a projected 23% increase in global production (3.38 million tons). However, retail prices may remain high as older, costly inventories are sold.

• Consumer Impact: Since 2021, olive oil prices have roughly doubled in the U.S., attributed to climate change, droughts, and rising production costs. This has led to consumer price sensitivity, with some shifting to cheaper alternatives like canola or vegetable oil.

Key Factors Influencing Olive and Olive Oil Prices (2020–2025)

Global Supply and Weather Conditions:

• Droughts in Spain, Italy, and Greece (2022/23 and 2023/24) reduced global olive oil production by nearly 30%, driving prices to record highs.

• Improved rainfall and milder temperatures in 2024/25 are expected to boost production by 23–32%, potentially stabilizing or lowering prices.

• The 2023/24 crop year saw a 7% production drop to 2.56 million tons, while 2024/25 estimates project 3.38 million tons.

U.S. Import Dependency:

• The U.S. produces less than 2% of its olive oil consumption, relying heavily on imports from Spain, Italy, and Greece. In 2023, the U.S. imported 257,000 tons of olive oil, down 11.7% from 2022, but import values rose to $1.6 billion due to higher prices.

• Table olive imports surged to 14,000 tons in 2023, primarily from Mexico.

Rising Demand:

• U.S. olive oil consumption grew from 28,000 metric tons in the 1970s to over 400,000 metric tons in the 2020s, driven by health awareness and Mediterranean diet popularity. The U.S. accounts for over 15% of global consumption.

• Demand for organic and virgin olive oils has increased, with organic sales up 10% from 2020–2023.

Economic and Policy Factors:

• Potential U.S. tariffs on EU imports (e.g., Spain’s 70,000 tons in 2024) could disrupt prices, though exporters may absorb some costs to remain competitive.

• Spain’s removal of sales tax on olive oil in 2024, following a 272% price surge since 2020, highlights global efforts to mitigate consumer price impacts.

Retail Price Lag:

• Despite projected production increases, retail olive oil prices in 2025 may remain elevated due to high-cost inventories from 2023–2024.