Almonds Prices in the United States from 2020 to 2025

Almond Prices in the United States (2020–2025)

2020

In 2020, U.S. almond exports reached a record value of approximately $1.1 billion, driven by a harvested volume of 296,000 tons. The average export price per kilogram was around $4.88, reflecting a strong global demand, particularly from India, which accounted for 74% of export volume. However, domestic prices faced pressure due to a record carryover from a bumper 2019 crop and shipping disruptions caused by the pandemic. The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reported an average price received by growers of about $1.81 per pound for the 2019–2020 season, with 2020 prices aligning closely to this as supply remained high.

2021

By 2021, almond prices saw a slight decline in export value terms, with the export price per kilogram dropping to $4.67. This was influenced by a peak in imports (valued at $19 million) and a massive 474% increase in import value from the previous year, suggesting a flood of supply in the market. Domestically, grower prices remained relatively low, hovering around $1.80–$1.90 per pound, as the industry grappled with oversupply and logistical challenges. The 2021 harvest was robust, contributing to a total supply of over 3 billion pounds, which kept prices suppressed.

2022

In 2022, almond prices began to show signs of recovery. The export price per ton was reported at $4,036 in May (FOB, US), a 4.7% increase from the prior month, indicating a tightening supply or rising demand. Domestic grower prices improved slightly, with reports suggesting an average of around $2.00 per pound for conventional almonds, as per the Risk Management Agency’s additional price elections for 2025 reflecting back on trends. However, the market still faced a large carryover, with ending stocks estimated at 800.3 million pounds, keeping prices from rising sharply.

2023

By 2023, almond prices hit a 20-year low in August, with Mintec’s price benchmark reflecting grower concerns over huge ending stocks (around 3 billion pounds total supply, including carryover). Prices dropped below $2.00 per pound earlier in the year, with some reports citing $1.81 as the five-year average (2019–2023). Sellers cleared stocks ahead of the new harvest, which was projected at 2.5 billion pounds per USDA estimates. However, late in 2023, prices began to rebound, reaching over $2.40 per pound by year-end, a 17% increase from 2022 lows, driven by strong shipments and a smaller-than-expected crop due to weather delays and pest damage.

2024

In 2024, almond prices continued an upward trend. By December, grower prices were reported at over $2.40 per pound, supported by a crop increase to 1.34 million metric tons (about 2.95 billion pounds) and a total supply of 1.57 million metric tons. The Almond Board of California noted firm pricing on kernels and a rise in inshell prices, with exports to India and other markets pushing demand. The Risk Management Agency set 2025 price elections at $2.00 per pound for conventional almonds (established price $1.80), suggesting a stabilization around this level, though market reports indicate actual prices were higher, likely averaging $2.50–$2.60 per pound for the year.

2025

As of today, March 14, 2025, almond prices for the first quarter of 2025 are showing continued strength. The 2024/2025 season crop is estimated at 1.34 million metric tons, with ending stocks projected to rise to 272,400 metric tons (about 600 million pounds). Given the supply-demand balance, prices are expected to remain elevated. Industry forecasts suggest grower prices could average $2.60–$2.80 per pound for 2025, supported by:

• A slight uptick in global demand (e.g., almond milk and snacks).

• A smaller carryover compared to pre-2023 levels (605 million pounds projected carryout vs. 800 million in 2022).

• Stable macroeconomic conditions, with a weaker dollar aiding exports.

The Risk Management Agency’s 2025 additional price elections ($2.00 conventional, $3.00 organic) provide a baseline, but market dynamics suggest prices may exceed these, potentially reaching $2.70–$2.80 per pound by year-end if export demand holds and weather doesn’t disrupt yields further. However, an oversupply risk remains if production exceeds forecasts or export markets soften.

Key Trends and Observations

• 2020–2022: Prices were depressed due to oversupply, large carryovers, and logistical issues.

• 2023–2024: A shift toward recovery occurred as stocks normalized and demand grew, with prices rising 17% from 2022 to 2024.

• 2025 Outlook: Prices are likely to continue a slight uptick, though volatility could arise from weather, global economic factors, or production surges.