Milk Prices in the United States from 2020 to 2025

2020

• All-Milk Price (Farmgate): The average all-milk price in 2020 was approximately $18.30 per cwt. This reflects a year impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, which disrupted demand (e.g., school and restaurant closures) but also saw government purchase programs supporting prices until their scheduled end late in the year.

• Retail Price: The average retail price for a gallon of fresh, whole, fortified milk was around $3.54, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data. Prices fluctuated due to supply chain issues and shifting consumer demand.

2021

• All-Milk Price: Prices rose to about $19.29 per cwt, driven by recovering demand as the economy reopened, though significant milk production increases kept prices from surging higher. Feed costs also began rising, squeezing margins.

• Retail Price: The retail price averaged approximately $3.59 per gallon, showing a slight uptick as production costs (e.g., feed, labor) increased and inflation started to creep into consumer prices.

2022

• All-Milk Price: A notable jump occurred, with the average reaching $26.46 per cwt (inflation-adjusted to 2023 dollars, per USDA ERS data). This spike was fueled by strong demand, slower production growth, and higher input costs (feed, fuel, labor) amid global economic recovery and inflation.

• Retail Price: The BLS reported an average of $4.03 per gallon, a 14% increase from 2021, reflecting inflationary pressures and higher farmgate prices trickling down to consumers.

2023

• All-Milk Price: Prices dropped significantly to around $20.56 per cwt (USDA projections and historical trends). Lower exports, reduced cheese and butter prices, and steady milk production contributed to this decline, though feed costs eased somewhat.

• Retail Price: The average retail price was $4.01 per gallon (BLS), a slight decrease from 2022, aligning with lower farmgate prices and stabilized supply.

2024

• All-Milk Price: Estimates suggest an average of $22.60 per cwt (USDA ERS forecast from late 2024). Production was slightly lower due to reduced cow inventories and milk yield, but demand held steady, supporting prices.

• Retail Price: The BLS averaged $3.98 per gallon, down 1.1% from 2023, reflecting a softening of inflationary pressures and stable dairy supply.

2025 

• All-Milk Price: Projections from late 2024 (e.g., USDA ERS) forecast an average of $23.05 per cwt for the full year, a $0.50 increase from earlier estimates, driven by higher dairy product prices (Class III and IV milk). However, with only two months of data, early 2025 trends are incomplete. January 2025 futures (e.g., from Trading Economics) indicate a rise of 1.62 USD/cwt (8.66%) since the year began, suggesting prices could be trending above $23.50 per cwt early in the year.

• Retail Price: BLS data for January 2025 shows $4.025 per gallon, down slightly from December 2024’s $4.101. Full-year averages are not yet available, but if farmgate price increases persist, retail prices might edge up later in 2025.

Trends and Insights

• 2020-2022: Prices rose sharply, peaking in 2022 due to post-pandemic recovery, inflation, and supply constraints.

• 2023-2024: A correction occurred as production stabilized and export demand softened, though 2024 saw a modest rebound.

• 2025 Outlook: Early indicators and projections suggest a gradual increase, supported by steady demand (e.g., cheese, butter) and slightly tighter supply. However, unknowns like weather, trade policies, and feed costs could shift this trajectory.