Cauliflower Prices in the United States from 2020 to 2025

Key Points

• Research suggests cauliflower prices in the US increased from about $1.54 per pound in 2020 to $1.81 per pound in 2024, then dropped to around $1.31 per pound in early 2025.

• Prices are based on estimates from producer price indices and recent market data, with some uncertainty due to varying sources.

• An unexpected detail is the significant price drop in early 2025, possibly reflecting seasonal or market shifts.

Price Trends Overview

Cauliflower prices in the United States have shown a general upward trend from 2020 to 2024, with an estimated increase from $1.54 per pound in 2020 to $1.81 per pound in 2024. This rise aligns with producer price index data, suggesting gradual inflation in farm-level costs. However, early 2025 data indicates a notable drop to approximately $1.31 per pound, based on March 2025 market reports, which may reflect seasonal availability or market dynamics.

Data Sources and Limitations

The estimates rely on the producer price index from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED and retail price data from the USDA's Market News service USDA Market News. There is some uncertainty due to differences between wholesale and retail prices, and the 2025 figure is based on limited early-year data, which may not reflect the full year's average.

Survey Note: Detailed Analysis of Cauliflower Prices in the United States (2020–2025)

This note provides a comprehensive examination of cauliflower prices in the United States from 2020 to 2025, drawing on multiple data sources to estimate trends and highlight key insights. The analysis integrates producer price indices, retail and farm-level price data, and market reports, acknowledging the complexities in data consistency and the impact of seasonal and market factors.

Background and Data Sources

Cauliflower, a member of the Brassica family alongside broccoli and cabbage, is a significant vegetable in the US market, with California producing about 90% of the supply, followed by Arizona and Oregon Agricultural Marketing Resource Center. Price data for this analysis were primarily sourced from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED, which provides the Producer Price Index (PPI) for farm products, specifically cauliflower, with a base of December 1991 = 100. Additional retail price insights were obtained from the USDA's Market News service USDA Market News and the Economic Research Service (ERS) ERS Fruit and Vegetable Prices, which include retail scanner data for specific years.

The analysis faced challenges due to the lack of comprehensive annual retail price data for all years (2020–2025) and discrepancies between wholesale (farm-level) and retail prices. The PPI data, while extensive, required calibration with a known price point to estimate actual dollar values per pound, introducing some uncertainty.

Estimated Price Trends (2020–2024)

To estimate prices, the PPI index values for December of each year were used as proxies, given the availability of monthly data. The known retail price for 2024, derived from USDA Market News as $1.81 per pound (based on last year's data, likely an average), was used as a reference point. The PPI index values for December were:

The calculation for each year was based on the formula:

Price = (PPI Index of Year / PPI Index of 2024) × Known Price in 2024 ($1.81).

This approach assumes a linear relationship between the index and price, which may oversimplify market dynamics but provides a reasonable estimate given data limitations.

For example, for 2020:(217.9 / 256.5) × 1.81 ≈ 0.85 × 1.81 ≈ $1.54 per pound.

Similar calculations were applied for other years, showing a gradual increase from $1.54 in 2020 to $1.81 in 2024, reflecting inflationary pressures and possibly increased production costs.

2025 Price Estimation

For 2025, data is partial, given the current date (March 11, 2025). The USDA's Market News report for the week ending March 13, 2025, indicates a retail price of $1.31 per pound for cauliflower (per lb, 252 ads), compared to $1.40 last week and $1.81 last year (2024) USDA Market News. This suggests a significant drop in early 2025, potentially due to seasonal availability, increased supply, or market adjustments. Given it's early in the year, this price ($1.31 per pound) is used as an estimate for 2025, acknowledging it may not reflect the full year's average and could vary with seasonal trends.

An attempt to correlate with the PPI showed inconsistencies, as the January 2025 PPI index value of 59.524 from FRED FRED appeared unusually low compared to historical trends (e.g., 256.5 in November 2024), suggesting possible data errors or revisions. Given this, the retail price from Market News was prioritized for 2025, highlighting the need for caution in interpreting early-year data.

Data Challenges and Unexpected Findings

A notable challenge was the discrepancy between wholesale (PPI-based) and retail prices, as seen in the significant drop from $1.81 per pound in 2024 to $1.31 in early 2025, which was unexpected given the upward trend from 2020 to 2024. This drop may reflect seasonal factors, such as increased winter production or changes in demand, and underscores the volatility in vegetable pricing. Another unexpected detail was the lack of comprehensive annual retail data for all years, requiring reliance on proxy indices and limited market reports, which introduced estimation uncertainty.

The ERS data ERS Fruit and Vegetable Prices provided retail prices for 2020 and 2022 but cautioned against year-to-year comparisons, limiting its utility for trend analysis. Similarly, farm-level price data from YCharts YCharts was available only up to 2022, further complicating the picture for 2023–2025.

Market Context and Implications

Cauliflower consumption in the US was approximately 2.61 pounds per person of fresh cauliflower in 2020, with 94% sold for the fresh market Agricultural Marketing Resource Center, indicating strong demand. The price increase from 2020 to 2024 aligns with broader food inflation trends, as noted in the USDA's Food Price Outlook ERS Food Price Outlook. The 2025 drop, however, suggests potential oversupply or reduced demand in early 2025, which could be temporary and subject to seasonal recovery.

Conclusion

Research suggests cauliflower prices in the US increased from about $1.54 per pound in 2020 to $1.81 per pound in 2024, then dropped to around $1.31 per pound in early 2025, based on available data and estimates. The analysis highlights the complexity of price data, with uncertainties due to source variations and the need for further data as 2025 progresses. This detailed examination provides a foundation for understanding market trends, with implications for producers, retailers, and consumers.