Salmon Prices in the United States from 2020 to 2025

For import prices of salmon into the US (which heavily influence domestic availability since the US imports much of its salmon, especially from countries like Chile and Norway), the following trends are observed:

• 2020: The import price was approximately $6.04 per kg. This was a peak compared to surrounding years, possibly due to supply chain disruptions from the global pandemic affecting production and shipping.

• 2021: Prices dropped to about $5.71 per kg, reflecting a stabilization in supply as the world adjusted to new conditions, though demand remained strong.

• 2022: The price rose again to around $6.40 per kg, driven by increased global demand and inflationary pressures impacting production costs (e.g., feed, labor, and fuel).

• 2023: Estimates suggest a price of approximately $6.70 per kg, continuing an upward trend as demand for healthy, protein-rich foods like salmon grew, alongside rising costs.

• 2024: Projections indicate a further increase to about $7.00 per kg, based on ongoing growth in consumption (the US consumed over 650,000 tonnes in 2022 and 2023) and persistent supply-side cost pressures.

For export prices of salmon from the US (mostly wild-caught Pacific species like sockeye and king salmon from Alaska), the trend is slightly different:

• 2020: The export price hit $6.04 per kg, the highest in recent years, likely due to strong international demand and reduced supply from pandemic-related fishing restrictions.

• 2021: It decreased to $5.71 per kg as supply recovered somewhat.

• 2022–2024: Data is less granular, but export prices likely hovered between $5.50 and $6.50 per kg, reflecting a steady but less volatile market compared to imports, with wild-caught salmon maintaining a premium niche.

Current and Projected Price (2025)

• Import Price (2025): Projections suggest the import price could reach around $7.20–$7.50 per kg. This is based on the historical upward trend (roughly $0.30–$0.50 annual increases since 2021) and continued growth in demand, tempered by potential increases in global supply (e.g., a forecasted 3.5–4.0% rise in farmed salmon production globally in 2025).

• Export Price (2025): One source predicts a significant jump to $10.50 per kg for US salmon exports in 2025, implying a sharp rise from the $5–$6 range. This seems optimistic and may reflect specific high-value markets (e.g., premium wild-caught salmon) rather than the average. A more conservative estimate, aligning with past stability, would be $6.50–$7.00 per kg, assuming steady demand and no major supply shocks.

Factors Influencing 2025 Prices

• Supply Growth: Analysts expect farmed salmon production to increase in 2025 (e.g., Norway’s output rising by 40,000 tonnes), which could ease prices slightly in the second half of the year, though seasonal shortages in the first half might keep early 2025 prices high.

• Demand: The US remains the world’s largest salmon market, with per capita consumption around 2.0 kg (whole fish equivalent). Health-conscious consumers continue to drive demand, potentially offsetting supply increases.

• Global Trends: A projected drop in spot prices in Europe (e.g., €3/kg lower in late 2025) could influence US import prices, though shipping costs and tariffs might limit the impact.

Wild vs. Farmed: Wild-caught salmon (dominant in US exports) tends to command higher prices (e.g., king salmon at $25+/lb retail) but is a smaller share of the market compared to cheaper farmed Atlantic salmon ($10–$15/lb retail).