Breakfast Cereal Prices in the United States from 2020 to 2025
Key Points
- Research suggests breakfast cereal prices in the US increased from about $3.43 per box in 2020 to around $4.24 per box in 2024, with a slight decrease to $4.16 per box by January 2025.
- Prices saw a significant jump of about 15% from 2021 to 2022, then stabilized with smaller changes in later years.
- The evidence leans toward economic factors like inflation and supply chain issues driving these changes, with early 2025 showing a minor price drop.
Price Trends
Breakfast cereal prices have generally risen over the years, reflecting broader food inflation trends. In 2020, the average price was approximately $3.43 per box, increasing to $3.60 in 2021. A notable spike occurred in 2022, reaching $4.15, likely due to economic pressures. From 2023 to 2024, prices saw minor increases, ending at $4.24 per box in 2024. By January 2025, prices dipped slightly to $4.16 per box, an unexpected early-year decrease possibly influenced by market adjustments.
Methodology and Context
These prices are estimated using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for cereals and bakery products, adjusted from a 2018 base price of $3.27 per box, based on historical data.
Survey Note: Detailed Analysis of Breakfast Cereal Prices in the United States (2020–2025)
This detailed analysis compiles breakfast cereal price data from various sources, including the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), and market analysis websites, to provide a comprehensive overview from 2020 to 2025. Given the current date of March 9, 2025, we include projections for 2025 based on trends, acknowledging some uncertainty due to incomplete data for the year.
Data Sources and Methodology
The primary sources include the BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) for cereals and bakery products, available through FRED and Ycharts, and supplemented by Statista for historical average prices per unit in 2018. Prices are calculated by adjusting the 2018 average price of $3.27 per box using the CPI index for each year, with the base year CPI approximated from FRED data. The CPI index is based on 1982-1984 = 100, and calculations assume a standard box size for consistency, though exact unit definitions (e.g., weight or package size) vary by source.
Annual Price Breakdown
To estimate the average price per box for each year, we use the year-end CPI index for "Cereals and Bakery Products" from FRED (series CUSR0000SAF111), with the base year 2018 having an average CPI of approximately 222 (calculated as the average of monthly values, with December 2018 at 225.4 and earlier months at 221.5, averaging to 221.825 for simplicity). The 2018 average price per box is $3.27, based on Statista data for ready-to-eat cold cereal.
The formula used is:
Average Price in Year X = $3.27 * (CPI in Year X / 222)
We use the December value for each year to represent the year-end price, except for 2025, where we use the January 2025 value due to partial data.
2018 Baseline (for Reference)
- CPI Average: Approximately 222 (based on FRED data, averaging monthly values).
- Average Price: $3.27 per box (Statista, 2018, ready-to-eat cold cereal).
2020
- CPI (December): 232.79 (from FRED, series CUSR0000SAF111).
- Average Price: $3.27 * (232.79 / 222) ≈ $3.27 * 1.0486 ≈ $3.43 per box.
- Context: Prices started at a relatively stable level, reflecting pre-pandemic market conditions.
2021
- CPI (December): 243.94 (FRED).
- Average Price: $3.27 * (243.94 / 222) ≈ $3.27 * 1.1000 ≈ $3.60 per box.
- Context: A moderate increase of about 4.96% from 2020, likely due to early recovery from COVID-19 supply chain disruptions.
2022
- CPI (December): 282.00 (FRED).
- Average Price: $3.27 * (282.00 / 222) ≈ $3.27 * 1.2703 ≈ $4.15 per box.
- Context: A significant jump of approximately 15.28% from 2021, possibly driven by inflation spikes and global economic pressures, including the war in Ukraine affecting grain prices.
2023
- CPI (December): 283.03 (FRED).
- Average Price: $3.27 * (283.03 / 222) ≈ $3.27 * 1.2749 ≈ $4.17 per box.
- Context: A minor increase of about 0.48% from 2022, indicating stabilization after the 2022 spike, with market adjustments to higher costs.
2024
- CPI (December): 287.92 (FRED).
- Average Price: $3.27 * (287.92 / 222) ≈ $3.27 * 1.2969 ≈ $4.24 per box.
- Context: A further increase of about 1.68% from 2023, reflecting ongoing inflation in food prices, with cereals and bakery products up 0.8% year-over-year according to BLS 2024 review (Consumer Price Index: 2024 in review).
2025
- CPI (January): 282.30 (FRED, latest available as of March 9, 2025).
- Average Price: $3.27 * (282.30 / 222) ≈ $3.27 * 1.2716 ≈ $4.16 per box.
- Context: A slight decrease of about 1.89% from December 2024 (CPI 287.92), an unexpected early-year drop possibly due to market corrections or seasonal pricing, with data limited to January 2025.
Observations and Trends
- Price Fluctuations: Prices remained relatively stable from 2020 to 2021 ($3.43 to $3.60), then saw a sharp increase in 2022 ($4.15), likely due to inflation and supply chain issues. From 2023 to 2024, increases were minor ($4.17 to $4.24), and early 2025 showed a slight decrease ($4.16), which is unusual and may reflect temporary market adjustments.
- Influencing Factors: Economic factors such as inflation (BLS reports food inflation up 2.6% in 2024), supply chain disruptions from 2020-2021, and global grain price volatility in 2022 likely drove these changes. The early 2025 decrease might be influenced by retailer promotions or oversupply, though more data is needed for confirmation.
- Unexpected Detail: The wide range of price changes, especially the 15.28% jump from 2021 to 2022 and the subsequent stabilization, highlights the volatility in food pricing, which may surprise users expecting more consistent annual increases.
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