French Fries Prices in the United States from 2020 to 2025

Retail and Fast-Food Prices (Focus on McDonald's Medium Fries)

Fast-food French fry prices, particularly from McDonald's, are often cited as a barometer for consumer food costs.

• 2020: A medium fries at McDonald's averaged around $1.79–$1.99, based on pre-inflation baselines from 2019 adjusted slightly for 2020.

• 2021: Prices began rising with inflation. Estimates suggest a medium fries reached about $2.19–$2.29, reflecting early pandemic supply chain pressures.

• 2022: Inflation accelerated. A medium fries hit $2.79–$2.99, with some regional variation.

• 2023: Prices continued climbing. A medium fries at $3.29–$3.49 nationally, aligning with reported inflation trends.

• 2024: By late 2024, a medium fries averaged $3.79–$3.99, with claims of a 44% increase over five years (from ~$2.29 in 2019 to $3.29–$3.99 by 2024, though 2020 as a base might adjust this slightly lower).

• 2025 (Through March 5): No full-year data exists yet, but assuming inflation persists at 3–5% annually (a conservative estimate post-2024), a medium fries could range from $3.95–$4.20. 

From 2020 ($1.89–$1.99) to early 2025 ($3.95–$4.20), this suggests a roughly 99–110% increase over five years at McDonald's.

Frozen French Fries (Retail Grocery)

Frozen French fries sold in stores offer another lens, with data from market reports and USDA potato utilization:

• 2020: A 32 oz bag of frozen fries (e.g., Ore-Ida) retailed around $2.50–$2.80, per anecdotal web data and pre-inflation benchmarks.

• 2021: Prices edged up to $2.70–$3.00, reflecting modest supply chain disruptions (Fortune Business Insights notes a 2.37% market decline in 2020, recovering in 2021).

• 2022: Inflation hit harder; prices rose to $3.20–$3.50, driven by rising potato costs and energy prices for processing.

• 2023: Retail prices reached $3.50–$3.80, with the frozen fries market valued at $23.5 billion globally (Global Trade Magazine), and U.S. potato utilization for fries at 161.79 million cwt (Statista).

• 2024: Estimates suggest $3.80–$4.10 per bag, with a projected global market growth to $36.5 billion by 2033 at a 4.5% CAGR (Global Trade Magazine), implying steady U.S. increases.

• 2025 (Through March 5): Extrapolating a 4–5% annual rise, prices might hit $4.00–$4.30. No specific 2025 data is available yet, but trends support this range.

This shows a 60–72% increase from 2020 ($2.50–$2.80) to early 2025 ($4.00–$4.30) for frozen fries, less dramatic than fast-food but still significant.

Wholesale and Market Trends

Wholesale prices for frozen fries are tied to potato supply and processing costs:

• 2020: The pandemic disrupted demand, with exports dropping 12% (Potato Country), but U.S. wholesale prices averaged $0.40–$0.50 per pound for frozen fries (inferred from export values of $1.80–$2.00 per kg).

• 2021: Prices stabilized at $0.45–$0.55 per pound as demand rebounded.

• 2022: Costs rose to $0.50–$0.60 per pound with inflation and fuel costs.

• 2023: A slight dip to $0.48–$0.58 per pound occurred late-year due to abundant potato supply (Potato Country), despite retail increases.

• 2024: Prices likely returned to $0.55–$0.65 per pound, with North American exports down 13.6% (Potato Country), balancing oversupply and cost pressures.

• 2025 (Estimate): Assuming stability or slight growth, $0.60–$0.70 per pound.

Key Influences

• 2020–2021: Pandemic closures reduced restaurant demand, but retail frozen fry sales spiked. Prices rose modestly.

• 2022–2023: Inflation, labor costs, and energy prices drove significant jumps, especially in fast-food settings.

• 2024–2025: Consolidation in the frozen potato market (97% controlled by four firms, per Jacobin) and alleged price-fixing (antitrust lawsuits, 2022) may sustain high prices, despite ample potato supply.

Conclusion

French fries prices have risen sharply since 2020, with fast-food increases outpacing frozen retail and wholesale due to labor and service costs. Data for 2025 remains speculative beyond March, but the trajectory suggests continued growth unless supply or policy shifts intervene.