Orange Prices in the United States from 2020 to 2025

Key Points

• Orange prices in the U.S. have varied from 2020 to 2025, with research suggesting an upward trend overall.

• It seems likely that prices increased from about $1.25 per pound in 2020 to a projected $1.66 per pound in 2025.

• The evidence leans toward prices being influenced by inflation and supply factors, with 2025 figures being estimates.

Annual Prices

Below is a table summarizing the average retail prices for oranges (primarily Navel) in the U.S. from 2020 to 2024, with a projection for 2025:

Projection for 2025

The 2025 price is a projection based on expected inflation rates for fresh fruits, estimated at a 2.5% increase from the 2024 average, reflecting broader food price trends.

Unexpected Detail

Interestingly, while orange prices generally rose, the increase slowed in recent years, with only a 0.6% rise from 2022 to 2023, possibly due to stabilized supply chains post-COVID.

Survey Note: Detailed Analysis of Orange Prices in the U.S. from 2020 to 2025

This note provides a comprehensive analysis of orange prices in the United States from 2020 to 2025, based on available data and projections. The focus is on retail prices, primarily for Navel oranges, as these are commonly tracked by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and other sources. The analysis includes historical data, trends, and a projection for 2025, considering economic and market factors.

Historical Prices (2020–2024)

The annual average prices were calculated from monthly BLS data, accounting for months with available data. Some years had missing months, particularly in 2020 and 2021, which may affect accuracy. Below is the detailed breakdown:

• 2020: Data was available for January, February, March, May, June, and December. The prices were $1.244, $1.218, $1.174, $1.209, $1.296, and $1.329 per pound, respectively. The average, calculated over these 6 months, was approximately $1.25 per pound. This year saw stable pricing despite COVID-19 disruptions, with demand for fresh produce remaining consistent.

• 2021: Data was available for January to June and October to December, totaling 10 months. Prices ranged from $1.266 in March to $1.490 in October, with an average of $1.36 per pound. This slight increase of $0.11 from 2020 reflects rising production costs and supply chain challenges.

• 2022: Data was available for all months except July, with prices ranging from $1.427 in January to $1.730 in September and October. The average was $1.57 per pound, a $0.21 increase from 2021, possibly due to improved supply conditions in key states like California.

• 2023: All 12 months had data, with prices ranging from $1.509 in March to $1.693 in October, averaging $1.58 per pound. This small $0.01 increase from 2022 suggests stabilization, though Statista reports a slightly higher $1.60 per pound, indicating possible variation in data sources U.S. retail price of navel oranges 2023.

• 2024: All 12 months had data, with prices ranging from $1.475 in April to $1.805 in October, averaging $1.62 per pound. This $0.04 increase from 2023 reflects ongoing inflationary pressures and steady consumer demand.

Trends and Factors

From 2020 to 2024, orange prices showed an upward trend, with an overall increase of 29.6% ($1.25 to $1.62). However, the rate of increase varied:

• 2020 to 2021: 8.8% increase, likely due to pandemic-related supply chain issues.

• 2021 to 2022: 15.4% increase, possibly reflecting recovery and higher farm costs.

• 2022 to 2023: 0.6% increase, indicating a slowdown, possibly due to stabilized supply.

• 2023 to 2024: 2.5% increase, aligning with broader food inflation trends.

Key factors influencing prices include:

• Inflation: The CPI for all food increased 2.5% in 2024, with fresh fruits expected to rise by 2.5% in 2025 Food Price Outlook - Summary Findings.

• Supply and Demand: Weather conditions in major orange-producing states like Florida and California, along with import/export dynamics, affect prices. For instance, 2022 saw improved supply, contributing to price stability.

• Trade Policy: Potential tariffs on imported oranges could influence prices, though specific impacts in 2025 are uncertain.

Projection for 2025

As of March 4, 2025, only January data was available, with a price of $1.531 per pound. Given the partial data, a projection was necessary. The approach used the expected CPI increase for fresh fruits, forecasted at 2.5% for 2025 by the USDA. Starting from the 2024 average of $1.62, the projected price is $1.62 * 1.025 = $1.66 per pound. This projection aligns with general food inflation trends, though actual prices may vary based on supply disruptions or market conditions.

Alternative methods considered included:

• Using the average annual increase from 2020 to 2024 ($0.0925 per year), leading to $1.62 + $0.0925 = $1.7125, or approximately $1.71 per pound.

• Assuming a slower increase based on recent years (e.g., 1.55% average from 2022–2024), leading to $1.62 * 1.0155 ≈ $1.64 per pound.

The chosen projection of $1.66 per pound balances these approaches, reflecting inflation and recent trends, though it remains an estimate.

Unexpected Observations

An interesting detail is the slowdown in price increases from 2022 to 2023 (0.6%), contrasting with earlier years' higher growth rates. This could indicate market stabilization post-COVID, though 2024 saw a modest 2.5% rise, suggesting ongoing inflationary pressures.

Conclusion

Orange prices in the U.S. from 2020 to 2024 ranged from $1.25 to $1.62 per pound, with a projected increase to $1.66 per pound in 2025. This analysis leverages BLS data, USDA forecasts, and inflation trends, acknowledging the complexity of market dynamics. Users should note that 2025 figures are projections and may vary based on actual conditions.