Walnut Prices in the United States from 2020 to 2025

Key Points

• Research suggests walnut prices in the U.S. varied from 2020 to 2025, with estimates ranging from $600 to $1450 per metric ton based on available data and trends.

• Prices dropped significantly in 2022 to $600, then rose to $840 in 2023, with 2024 and 2025 estimated at $1000 and $1200, respectively, due to reduced supply.

• The evidence leans toward California being the main producer, with production challenges like reduced acreage affecting prices.

Price Trends

Walnut prices in the United States from 2020 to 2025, in USD per metric ton, show fluctuation:

• 2020: $1200

• 2021: $1450

• 2022: $600

• 2023: $840

• 2024: Estimated $1000 (based on industry trends and reduced supply)

• 2025: Estimated $1200 (early year, elevated prices due to lower crop estimates)

These figures are based on historical farm prices and forecasts, with 2024 and 2025 estimates reflecting reduced crop production, especially in California, which is a major producer.

Historical Context and Production

Walnuts have been a staple crop in the U.S., with California accounting for the vast majority of production, contributing over 99% of the nation's output. The state's favorable climate and soil conditions, particularly in regions like the Central Valley, support large-scale cultivation. However, recent years have seen challenges, including reduced bearing acreage and weather-related issues. For instance, from September 2023 to August 2024, approximately 18,000 acres were removed, with an additional 10,000 acres under stress, reducing producing acres to 370,000 by 2024 Terrain | Walnut Prices Likely to Remain Elevated Into Early 2025. This decline, coupled with a 2024 USDA objective crop estimate of 670,000 inshell tons—down 19% from 824,000 tons in 2023—has impacted supply and pricing U.S. Walnut Supply Tightens as China Fills the Gap.

Historically, walnut prices have been influenced by global trade dynamics, with the U.S. being a major exporter. However, overseas shipments declined by 31.7% to 77K tons in 2023, reflecting a broader slump in exports Walnut Price in the United States. This reduction, alongside domestic supply constraints, has contributed to price volatility.

Unexpected Detail: Market Dynamics

An interesting aspect is the global competition, with China and Chile influencing U.S. prices, especially as U.S. exports declined, affecting domestic supply and pricing in recent years.

Price Data and Trends

Efforts to compile walnut prices from 2020 to 2025 revealed a mix of historical data and estimates, particularly for 2024 and 2025, due to the lack of finalized reports for these years as of April 2025. The following table summarizes the available data, with estimates for 2024 and 2025 based on industry trends and reduced supply:

The data for 2020 to 2023 is sourced from US Walnuts Price Received Yearly Trends: USDA Farm Price Received. The 2022 price of $600 per metric ton was notably low, less than half the previous record low of $0.58 per pound (adjusted for inflation) in 1999, as noted in Almond, hazelnut, and walnut prices fall to lowest levels in decades. The 2023 price of $840 showed recovery, likely due to reduced carry-in and record shipments in the 2023/2024 season, with cumulative shipments reaching nearly 840,000 inshell tons Terrain | Walnut Prices Likely to Remain Elevated Into Early 2025.

For 2024 and 2025, exact figures are not yet available, but industry insights suggest prices remained elevated. The 2024/2025 crop year's smaller carry-in of 95,000 inshell tons, combined with a 20% drop in crop estimate, supports the estimate of $1000 for 2024 and $1200 for early 2025, reflecting short-run tailwinds and potential competition from global producers like China and Chile.

Market Dynamics and Global Influence

An interesting aspect is the global competition affecting U.S. walnut prices. China, the largest global producer, and Chile have influenced market dynamics, with U.S. exports facing declines, as seen in a 31.7% drop in 2023 shipments. This reduction in exports, alongside domestic supply constraints, has likely pushed prices upward, especially in 2024 and 2025. Additionally, wholesale price ranges for 2025, such as $3.37 to $6.06 per kilogram (or $3370 to $6060 per metric ton, though potentially retail-focused), suggest variability in market segments Walnuts Price in US - February 2025 Market Prices (Updated Daily), but farm-level data remains the focus here.

Regional Variations and Consumer Trends

Production is heavily concentrated in California, with reports indicating retail sales in the U.S. expected to rise by 2.5% to 3.5% in 2024, reaching around $5.23 trillion, partly driven by consumer demand for healthy snacks Walnut Market Size, Share, Analysis, Forecast 2025-2033. This demand, fueled by walnuts' high omega-3 content and health benefits, may support higher prices.

Conclusion

In summary, walnut prices in the U.S. from 2020 to 2025 show significant variation, with historical data for 2020 to 2023 ranging from $600 to $1450 per metric ton, and estimates for 2024 and 2025 at $1000 and $1200, respectively, reflecting reduced supply and elevated market conditions. California’s production challenges, global competition, and consumer demand for health-focused products are key factors influencing these trends.